Tuesday, December 23, 2008

in case anyone was paying attention

The whole point about Georgia and the failure of Europe to step up to the plate relative to Russia's unilateral border reordering (which I mentioned at the time) was gas. Obviously Europe has decided high gas prices are okay.

It now seems they'll be getting their wishes.

I am of course two minds about this, higher gas prices mean less carbon emissions if there is a cap and trade or carbon tax in place to prevent a reversion to coal.

But really what is this about - it's obvious to me that Russia is pushing for a mechanism to ensure that gas prices are not capped by the cost of LNG (lets call that $15) over the long run. The goal, quite obviously, is to avoid having an actual market.

The difference between an OPEC and a gas cartel would be that Russia would of course be willing to play very mean to ensure production targets were met. Not a cartel I'd want to be in, but the upside is pretty significant for smaller players.

The bigger issue is of course that even a large natural gas producer like Canada or the US, which may not want to participate in the cartel, would be price takers - this means no real opposition from a US policy making front.

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