in case anyone was paying attention
The whole point about Georgia and the failure of Europe to step up to the plate relative to Russia's unilateral border reordering (which I mentioned at the time) was gas. Obviously Europe has decided high gas prices are okay.
It now seems they'll be getting their wishes.
I am of course two minds about this, higher gas prices mean less carbon emissions if there is a cap and trade or carbon tax in place to prevent a reversion to coal.
But really what is this about - it's obvious to me that Russia is pushing for a mechanism to ensure that gas prices are not capped by the cost of LNG (lets call that $15) over the long run. The goal, quite obviously, is to avoid having an actual market.
The difference between an OPEC and a gas cartel would be that Russia would of course be willing to play very mean to ensure production targets were met. Not a cartel I'd want to be in, but the upside is pretty significant for smaller players.
The bigger issue is of course that even a large natural gas producer like Canada or the US, which may not want to participate in the cartel, would be price takers - this means no real opposition from a US policy making front.
It now seems they'll be getting their wishes.
I am of course two minds about this, higher gas prices mean less carbon emissions if there is a cap and trade or carbon tax in place to prevent a reversion to coal.
But really what is this about - it's obvious to me that Russia is pushing for a mechanism to ensure that gas prices are not capped by the cost of LNG (lets call that $15) over the long run. The goal, quite obviously, is to avoid having an actual market.
The difference between an OPEC and a gas cartel would be that Russia would of course be willing to play very mean to ensure production targets were met. Not a cartel I'd want to be in, but the upside is pretty significant for smaller players.
The bigger issue is of course that even a large natural gas producer like Canada or the US, which may not want to participate in the cartel, would be price takers - this means no real opposition from a US policy making front.


0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home